This is how I am going to decide who wins the AL East this season. I'll take a piece of paper, rip it into 3 pieces, and write on them Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays respectively. Put them in a hat, have my Mom pull one out at a time and that will be how the East will be won this season. I really have no idea where I am leaning this year. Too deep, too competitive, and too fun! And honestly I can pick out cons on why each team shouldn't make the playoffs and pros for each as well. That is why this is so difficult to do this season for a huge baseball fan like myself. And the only thing that I will write about today as far as the two "other" teams in the division are concerned is...Toronto and Baltimore are a year or two away from competing. They both have made some serious strides in the draft and trading with getting the right young players in their organization.
Back to my 3 pieces of paper. Before my mother picks one out of the hat, here's the rules. To make the drama that much more fun, the first piece of paper mom pulls will miss the playoffs. The second will be your Wild Card winner, because let's be serious...the Wild Card will be coming out of the East for a very long time. And of course finally the last piece pulled will be you Division winner. Here we go.
Mom is very confused. "Pull a piece of paper out of the hat, MOM!"
I explain what is going on, and she pulls the paper out of the hat. The pressure is building because I told her that the team that she pulls will not make the playoffs this season. Hand shuffles around the hat...paper is pulled.
Out of the playoffs, again are the New York Yankees. The major concern I have of the Yanks this season is the how healthy they will be during the season. They made major strides to get back to the World Series this off season. Especially with a need that had to be done, starting pitching. CC Sabathia, who I believe will get hurt at some point this season, should eat up innings that was desperately missing from this team a year ago. Also, AJ Burnett who I loved as a pitcher couple of years ago. But, I am not the only one that thinks this transaction smells a little like the free agent signing of Carl Pavano a few years ago. I do think that Chien Ming Wang will have a great season after an injury filled 2008. I am also happy to hear that it was just announced yesterday, that Brett Gardner will start the season in center. Besides Derek Jeter he is my favorite Yankee at this point. He really works hard out there and deserved to start. And the biggest signing I believe this season was Xavier Nady. Nady is going to be very important to the success of the Yankees offense this season. No matter how you look at the AL East season it will be down to the wire and the Yankees will be there. But their most important month probably won't be September this year...it will be April.
Mom shuffles the pieces of paper in the hat, the pressure is really building on her now. I said this will be the Wild Card winner this season. Her hand goes into the hat, "I hope I don't pick the Red Sox!". She grabs one piece...and then changes to the other piece left in the hat. Pulls out that paper and grimaces while handing it to me. The winner of the Wild Card is the Red Sox.
"DAMN!" is echoed throughout the house.
Can the Red Sox still have the best line up in the Division this season even without a guy like Manny Ramirez? The answer is yes. Because winning the Wild Card this season won't be because of their deep pitching staff. It is all about how good their offense really is and the strength of the bullpen. Like Wang from New York, many believe that Josh Beckett will have a bounce back year. He better if they want to advance to the post season this year. If Boston will be gracing us with their presence in October, it will have to be because of another MVP like season from Kevin Youkilis and somebody else. Youk, is the blue-collared hitter that gets it done when it counts. And filling the void of a hitter like Ramirez can't be by just one player. David Ortiz has to stay healthy all season this year as well. I can definitely see another 35 homer season out of Ortiz, especially if Jason Bay can continue to shine on the big stage in Boston. If you take a look at Bay's combined stats from a year ago, you will see that he finished with these numbers .286/31/101 with a Slugging percentage of .522. How much do I think that Bay is going to excel this season? Well, let's put it this way. In one of my Fantasy Baseball league's I decided to keep Bay over Matt Holliday. Playing in Fenway is a right-handed batter's dream. The Red Sox's major success with their offense will rely heavily on Bay batting behind Ortiz. No ifs, ands, or buts about it.
With the final piece of paper lying in the hat. And the disgusted look on my mother's face tells it all. The AL East will be won by the Rays this year. Why? Why not! Each team that I have wrote about today has a flaw. The Rays flaw, for me, will be them handling the pressures of doing what they did again for a second straight year. Also, obviously, is being in the wrong division. Of course, we doubted them back in July so they love the underdog card. The youngest pitching staff in baseball could very well be the best pitching staff in baseball. And let me tell you this Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine are no slouches, they just happen to be behind guys with names like Shields, Kazmir, and a new name with dollar signs like Price. Another flaw that I just remembered was their offense's ability to strikeout way too much. Yea, their offense has great young talent that can be better than what they are on paper, but the strikeout ratio needs to go down for success this season. BJ Upton is one of the best players in the game today, but injuries need to be limited this season for the success of their offense. Upton showed the world what he can do with the bat when he is fully healthy back in October. 9 homers will not cut it from Upton this season. I expect the Rays to slowly get Upton back from his recent shoulder injury and put up MVP type numbers. One sleeper in this line up for the success of the Rays will be the play of newly acquired and starting right fielder Pat Burrell. He will be huge in the how the Rays fare this season. Also, expect David Price to be called up in 3 weeks and put up Rookie of the Year type numbers when he gets the call up.
There you have it. Thanks to my mother for my AL East preview. No matter how you look at it, this season has all the makings of being a truly fun year. Maybe just as fun as I had doing this piece today.
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